Warning of a global employment crisis even if the war ends

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth in the period 2023–2025 remains low compared to the long-term average, thereby directly affecting job creation capacity. Meanwhile, the World Bank notes that many countries, particularly developing countries, are facing high levels of debt, which constrain fiscal space for employment-promoting policies. In addition, private and international investment flows tend to decline, further weakening growth momentum and the economy’s capacity to absorb labor. Pressure on the labor market therefore continues to increase, especially in the context of a rapidly growing young labor force over the years.

The above warnings are not merely predictive but have been reflected in practice across many regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the growth rate of the working-age population far exceeds the economy’s job creation capacity; the region is facing prolonged underemployment, particularly among young workers, increasing the risk of social instability. In South Asia, employment pressure continues to rise as growth remains insufficient to absorb new entrants to the labor force. The World Bank indicates that many economies in this region remain heavily dependent on the informal sector, where job quality is low and unstable. For developed economies, digital transformation and automation continue to reshape employment structures, warning that a segment of the workforce risks displacement if they fail to adapt to new skill requirements. These realities demonstrate that the employment crisis is no longer a potential risk but is already present on a global scale.

Against this backdrop, the World Bank emphasizes the role of the private sector in job creation. Accordingly, improving the investment and business environment should be given top priority in order to encourage enterprises to expand production and create more jobs. In addition, countries need to focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling public debt, and enhancing the efficiency of financial resource utilization. Another important requirement is the development of labor skills appropriate to the new context. In the context of rapid digital transformation and technological change, the workforce needs to be equipped with adaptive skills to meet market demand.

Moreover, promoting policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises is also considered a necessary solution, as this sector makes a significant contribution to job creation in many countries. The creation of sustainable employment should be placed at the center of economic development strategies, rather than focusing solely on short-term growth objectives.