Minister of Finance: GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated at around 8.2%

The socio-economic situation has continued to achieve many important and comprehensive results

On October 5, the Government’s conference with localities was held under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, the global situation remains complicated, with numerous difficulties, major challenges, and increasing risks. Domestically, opportunities and advantages are intertwined with difficulties and challenges, but the latter remain more dominant, particularly as external adverse factors continue to intensify.

n the third quarter alone, Vietnam was hit by eight storms — including four consecutive major ones in September. Notably, Storm No. 10 brought extremely strong winds, a wide area of impact, and a prolonged duration, accompanied by heavy rainfall, causing severe damage. Preliminary estimates put the total losses at more than VND 16.5 trillion.

Against this backdrop, the Government, the Prime Minister, ministries, sectors, and localities have completed a substantial volume of work. The entire system has made great efforts and taken proactive, timely, and effective measures in responding to the situation and to unexpected issues, accomplishing a very large and complex workload within a short period of time. The socio-economic situation over the past nine months has continued to show positive growth, with many important, prominent, and comprehensive results achieved.

Within the estimated GDP growth rate of around 8.2% in the third quarter, the value-added growth of the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector exceeded 3.7%; the industry and construction sector grew by more than 9.4%; and the services sector expanded by approximately 8.5%.

GDP growth for the first nine months of the year was estimated at over 7.8% year-on-year. The growth rates of the three sectors were approximately 3.8%, 8.6%, and 8.4%, respectively, remaining consistent with the annual growth scenario of 8% as synchronous solutions continue to be effectively implemented.

Production and business activities, along with growth drivers, have continued to be promoted and renewed, maintaining a steady positive growth momentum. Agricultural and service sectors sustained relatively high growth despite severe impacts from natural disasters and storms, especially in September and the third quarter. The mining industry showed signs of recovery in the third quarter, increasing by 9.8%, while the manufacturing and processing industry continued to be the key growth driver, rising by about 10% in the third quarter and 9.92% over the first nine months, meeting the growth scenario (9.9%).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September rose by more than 3% year-on-year, and by over 3.2% in the first nine months. Supply and prices were effectively controlled in areas affected by natural disasters. Credit growth remained high, while new lending rates continued to follow a downward trend. The stock market and corporate bond market continued to grow vibrantly. State budget revenue for the first nine months reached VND 1.92 quadrillion, equivalent to 97.9% of the annual estimate, up 30.5% year-on-year.

In September, 27,500 enterprises were newly established or resumed operation, up 55.6% year-on-year. For the first nine months, the figure exceeded 231,300 enterprises, an increase of 26.4%, while the total additional registered capital of operating enterprises reached VND 3.3 quadrillion, up 186.5%.

Along with that, the effective implementation of the three strategic breakthroughs, the Politburo’s breakthrough resolutions, and the promotion of new growth drivers have produced clear and tangible results. The fields of culture, society, social security, and environmental protection have continued to receive due attention. National defense, security, and social order and safety have been firmly maintained, with close monitoring of the operation of the two-tier local government model. Communication and public information work have been implemented in a comprehensive, effective, and innovative manner, with diverse and rich forms and content — particularly in policy communication and major events — thereby contributing to consensus building and inspiring the aspiration for development across society.

Main tasks ahead

Beside the achieved results, the socio-economic situation still faces several difficulties such as: the growth target for 2025 remains challenging, while the macroeconomy is under considerable external pressure; new growth drivers are still in their early stages and require time to generate substantial impacts; institutional and legal improvement has received due attention and guidance but still encounters obstacles and has yet to meet development requirements; natural disasters have occurred continuously on a large scale, causing severe damage in many localities, with complex developments expected in the remaining months of the year, especially the phenomenon of overlapping disasters.

In the coming period, the Ministry of Finance has noted and proposed several groups of key tasks.

First, carefully and thoroughly prepare draft laws, resolutions, and contents to be submitted to the National Assembly at its 10th session; ensure effective feedback collection and explanation, build strong consensus, and promptly organize the implementation right after approval by the National Assembly.

Second, resolutely and effectively implement Conclusion No. 195 and other conclusions and directives of the Politburo, the Secretariat, the Central Steering Committee, the Government, and the Prime Minister regarding the restructuring of the organizational apparatus, public service units, and state-owned enterprises, as well as the implementation of the two-tier local government model, particularly the tasks and activities required to be completed within October.

Third, promote exports and develop trade in a harmonious and sustainable manner.

Fourth, continue to improve institutions, laws, and administrative procedures.

Fifth, boost investment, stimulate consumption, and strongly develop new growth drivers, science and technology, innovation, and digital transformation.

At the same time, continue to focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability; promoting cultural and social development, disaster prevention, and environmental protection; and strengthening information and communication work while improving the effectiveness of public mobilization.