Scenario for the U.S. Government to resume the operation of the national apparatus

The scenario in which the Democratic Party makes concessions is considered by the media to be the most likely outcome, as most previous budget crises have ended when one side eventually gave in. This time, many experts believe that the Democrats are the ones most likely to “back down”.

Partly because the American public generally does not support the use of a government shutdown as a tool of political pressure. On the other hand, signs of division have begun to emerge within the Democratic Party: three of its senators have voted in favor of the temporary resolution proposed by the Republican side.

If a few more members change their stance, the Democratic Party’s blocking strategy will collapse. The longer the deadlock lasts, the greater the risk of political damage for the party, especially as real-world impacts - such as soldiers going unpaid - begin to spread.

Reaching a temporary agreement to hold further dialogue on Obamacare is considered a compromise approach, in which both sides agree to reopen the government first and then separately discuss the future of the Obamacare subsidy program. This could be the most practical solution, allowing the Democratic Party to achieve part of its objectives while the Republican Party maintains its hardline stance.

According to a survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), 78% of Americans support the continuation of these healthcare subsidies. Many Republican strategists, including Tony Fabrizio, have recommended maintaining the subsidies to avoid negative reactions from voters.

Some Republican senators have expressed their willingness to negotiate but emphasized that “such discussions can only take place after the government reopens.” However, Democrats remain skeptical, arguing that a mere commitment to “discuss later” does not provide sufficient assurance.

If the Republican Party were to make partial concessions beyond the issue of Obamacare, the Democratic Party might demand the inclusion of a provision restricting the President’s “rescission authority” — a tool previously used by the Trump administration to nullify budget allocations approved by Congress. However, such a request would be difficult to accept, as it directly encroaches upon the powers of the executive branch.

Nevertheless, some smaller, more symbolic or technical concessions could be considered to help the Democratic Party “save face” and provide a reasonable justification for voting in favor of the budget.

The Republican Party accepts the Democrats’ demands – This is a rare scenario and the least likely to occur, but not entirely impossible. If public opinion continues to blame President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, and the cuts to healthcare subsidies are seen as “hurting ordinary citizens,” political pressure could force the Republicans to concede.

In that case, the reopening of the government would signify a major shift in the balance of power between the two parties - something President Trump certainly does not want to see.

The current budget standoff in Washington is not merely a financial dispute but also a test of political resolve for both parties. Regardless of which scenario unfolds, observers agree that the reopening of the U.S. government is inevitable - the only remaining question is who will be the first to back down.